New SBI and QuadSci Study Exposes Costly SaaS Retention Crisis—And How AI Can Predict Who Churns Next

DALLAS, October 22, 2025 — Despite record spending on customer success, most SaaS companies are still losing ground on retention. A new study from SBI Growth Advisory and QuadSci uncovers the behavioral patterns behind those losses and shows how AI can now forecast renewal and expansion decisions with 90% accuracy up to a year in advance.

In the report "Engineering SaaS Account Growth: From Guesswork to Predictable Growth," researchers used SBI Wayforge™ to analyze 160 billion telemetry data points across 9,100 accounts. The analysis showed that solution usage alone accounts for 80% of commercial outcomes—far outweighing pricing, competition, or satisfaction scores.

"This study proves that growth doesn't hinge on luck or loyalty—it hinges on behavior. For years, SaaS leaders have relied on surveys and sentiment to understand retention. Usage behavior tells the real story, and it can predict commercial outcomes with remarkable precision."

Key Findings

• NRR is slipping across the industry. Fifty-eight percent of SaaS companies report lower Net Revenue Retention (NRR) than two years ago.
• Usage behavior drives outcomes. The strongest predictor of renewals and expansions is how consistently customers engage with the product, exceeding factors like survey results and pricing.
• Six behavioral patterns forecast commercial results. Power Users, Enthusiastic Adopters, Converts, Explorers, Strugglers, and Disconnected accounts can predict renewal and expansion with 90% accuracy when tracked through AI.
• Pattern-based action improves performance. Early adopters of this model have achieved an average five percent improvement in NRR while reducing time spent on low-impact interventions.

"The SaaS industry has been sitting on a goldmine of telemetry data without the AI to make sense of it. This research shows that the signals for growth and churn are already there. The companies that act on them now will set the pace for 2026."

"These AI insights are now built directly into Reltio's Intelligent 360 platform, giving both our go-to-market teams and Reltio's Agentic AI a clear view of how customers engage with the platform—enabling us to support them more effectively."

Methodology

The study examined 160 billion telemetry data points tied to 9,100 customer accounts, tracking usage behavior across the full lifecycle. Researchers also analyzed more than 40,000 financial documents from 300 public subscription companies to benchmark NRR trends.